We are witnessing an acceleration in the uptake of renewable energy in power systems. Because of the associated variability and uncertainty of renewables, power systems need to have an adequate supply of flexibility to allow for suitable management of short-term operations. So far most of the work in this area has neglected how flexibility needs associated with renewables are fulfilled as part of dispatchable generation capital investments decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to plan the dispatchable generation mix of a power system as needed to counteract variability and uncertainty associated with significant shares of variable renewable generation. The approach exploits the linear time-invariant feature of variable generation variability using historical phase planes of capacity (in MW) and ramp (in MW/min) to bridge the gap between long-term capacity planning and short-term intra-hour flexibility needs. This approach is much more computationally tractable than other proposals, while also being able to capture adequately short-term operational features like ramping and net load variability. Numerical tests are performed on realistic datasets to substantiate the effectiveness of the approach.

中文翻译：

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可持续电力系统的快速灵活性驱动的发电量计划方法

我们目睹了电力系统对可再生能源的吸收加速。由于可再生能源的相关可变性和不确定性，电力系统需要具有足够的灵活性，以允许对短期运营进行适当的管理。到目前为止，该领域的大多数工作都忽略了如何满足可再生能源相关的灵活性需求，这是可调度发电资本投资决策的一部分。为了应对这一挑战，我们提出了一种方法，可根据需要计划电力系统的可调度发电组合，以抵消与可变可再生发电量占很大比例相关的可变性和不确定性。该方法利用容量（以兆瓦为单位）和斜率（以兆瓦/分钟为单位）的历史相位平面来利用变量生成可变性的线性时不变特征，以弥合长期容量计划与短期小时内灵活性需求之间的差距。与其他提议相比，该方法在计算上更易于处理，同时还能够捕获足够的短期运行特征，例如斜坡和净负载可变性。在现实的数据集上进行了数值测试，以证实该方法的有效性。