Statistics show that the increase in the number of refugees to Germany since 2015 was accompanied by an increase in xenophobic hate crimes. We deduced rivaling predictions from intergroup contact and intergroup threat theories that could explain the occurrence of xenophobic hate crimes. By combining structural data of the 402 German districts with the 2015 police crime statistics, we found evidence to support our predictions that aligns with intergroup contact theory: the higher the proportion of foreigners in a district, the lower the prevalence of xenophobic hate crimes. Our analyses further show that the prevalence of xenophobic hate crime attacks was positively related to the total prevalence of registered criminal offenses in a district and was higher in eastern German districts.

中文翻译：

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外国人比例负面预测德国地区仇外仇恨犯罪的流行

统计数据显示，自2015年以来，前往德国的难民人数增加，同时仇外仇恨犯罪也有所增加。我们从群体间接触和群体间威胁理论中得出了相互竞争的预测，可以解释仇外仇恨犯罪的发生。通过将402个德国地区的结构数据与2015年的警察犯罪统计数据相结合，我们发现了与群体间联系理论相符的证据来支持我们的预测：一个地区中外国人的比例越高，仇外仇恨犯罪的发生率越低。我们的分析进一步表明，仇外仇恨犯罪袭击的患病率与某个地区已登记的刑事犯罪的总体患病率呈正相关，而在德国东部地区则更高。