ABSTRACT

The theoretical literature from criminology, social movements, and political sociology, among others, includes diverging views about how political outcomes could affect movements. Many theories argue that political defeats motivate the losing side to increase their mobilization while other established models claim the winning side may feel encouraged and thus increase their mobilization. We examine these diverging perspectives in the context of the extreme right online and recent presidential elections by measuring the effect of the 2008 and 2016 election victories of Obama and Trump on the volume of postings on the largest white supremacy web-forum. ARIMA time series using intervention modeling showed a significant and sizable increase in the total number of posts and right-wing extremist posts but no significant change for firearm posts in either election year. However, the volume of postings for all impact measures was highest for the 2008 election.

摘要

来自犯罪学，社会运动和政治社会学等方面的理论文献包括关于政治结果如何影响运动的分歧观点。许多理论认为，政治失败会促使失败者增加动员，而其他既有模式则声称获胜者可能会感到鼓舞，从而增加了他们的动员。我们通过衡量奥巴马和特朗普在2008年和2016年大选胜利对最大的白人至上网络论坛上发帖数量的影响，在极端右翼的在线选举和最近的总统选举背景下研究了这些不同的观点。使用干预模型的ARIMA时间序列显示，职位和右翼极端主义职位的总数显着而可观的增加，但在任一选举年中，枪支职位均无显着变化。但是，所有影响措施的职位数量在2008年大选中最高。