Abstract

This study aimed to examine the current and future invasion potential of L. camara in Ethiopia under climate and land use/land cover changes and describes its possible range shift using an ensemble modeling approach. Under the current environmental condition, 4.2% of the total area of Ethiopia is suitable for L. camara invasion with three invasion hotspots identified in: the central, the northern, and the eastern Ethiopia hotspots. Of the total suitable areas, 0.6% has highest suitability, while 1.3% and 2.3% have moderate and low suitability, respectively. In 2050s, the area of highly suitable area for L. camara is expected to increase by 50% and 53.8%, while moderately suitable area is expected to increase by 43.5% and 51.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 62.5% and 68.4% by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This study has revealed that L. camara will likely expand its invading ranges towards areas characterized by warmer temperature as this climatic condition become more favorable. The results of this study can provide valuable information for strategic planning for invasive species, by identifying areas prone to invasion for possible mitigation-related interventions.

摘要

本研究旨在检查埃塞俄比亚在气候和土地利用/土地覆盖变化下L. camara当前和未来的入侵潜力，并使用集合建模方法描述其可能的范围变化。在目前的环境条件下，埃塞总面积的4.2%适合L. camara入侵，确定了埃塞中部、北部和东部3个入侵热点。在全部适宜区域中，0.6%的适宜度最高，1.3%和2.3%的适宜度分别为中度和低度。2050年代，红斑鲟高度适宜区在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候情景下，预计增加 50% 和 53.8%，而适度适宜面积预计分别增加 43.5% 和 51.9%。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，到 2070 年，该物种的高度适宜面积预计将分别增加 62.5% 和 68.4%。这项研究表明，随着气候条件变得更加有利， L. camara可能会将其入侵范围扩大到温度较高的地区。这项研究的结果可以为入侵物种的战略规划提供有价值的信息，通过确定易受入侵的区域以进​​行可能的缓解相关干预。