Abstract Using the psychometric paradigm of risk in conjunction with surveys of the Michigan public (n = 638) and a regional planning organization (n = 65), we examine the perceived risk and concerns associated with underwater oil pipelines, the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline in particular, and oil spills under ice. The fate of Line 5 is heavily debated in Michigan, specifically the portion that traverses the Straits of Mackinac, which can be ice-covered for months. Scant literature examines how individuals perceive the risk associated with Line 5, its alternatives, or potential spills in open water or under ice. Here we identify considerable concern regarding both the pipeline and the potential for spills under ice on behalf of the public, and increased concern about spills under ice on behalf of the planning organization. Organization members' concerns are significantly predicted by beliefs about the difficulty in remediating spills, however not by beliefs about spills' likelihood, difficulty in detection, noticeability, or consequences. Our results identify the need to better examine and communicate the risks associated with underwater pipelines and spills, both in open water and under ice, as well as options for remediating oil captured under ice. Furthermore, we recommend the adoption of decision-making and risk governance processes that explicitly expand analysis of the social, economic and environmental tradeoffs of underwater pipelines such as Line 5.

中文翻译：

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5 号线管道和冰下溢漏的感知风险

摘要 使用风险的心理测量范式，结合对密歇根州公众（n = 638）和区域规划组织（n = 65）的调查，我们检查了与水下石油管道相关的感知风险和担忧，Enbridge Line 5 管道在特别是在冰下漏油。5 号线的命运在密歇根州引起了激烈的争论，特别是穿越麦基诺海峡的部分，那里可能会被冰覆盖数月。很少有文献研究个人如何看待与 5 号线、其替代品或在开阔水域或冰下的潜在泄漏相关的风险。在这里，我们代表公众确定了对管道和冰下泄漏可能性的相当关注，并代表规划组织对冰下泄漏的担忧增加。组织成员 对修复泄漏的难度的信念可以显着预测担忧，但不是通过对泄漏的可能性、检测难度、显着性或后果的信念来预测。我们的研究结果表明，需要更好地检查和交流与开放水域和冰下水下管道和泄漏相关的风险，以及修复冰下捕获的石油的选项。此外，我们建议采用决策和风险治理流程，明确扩大对 5 号线等水下管道的社会、经济和环境权衡的分析。我们的研究结果表明，需要更好地检查和交流与开放水域和冰下水下管道和泄漏相关的风险，以及修复冰下捕获的石油的选项。此外，我们建议采用决策和风险治理流程，明确扩大对 5 号线等水下管道的社会、经济和环境权衡的分析。我们的研究结果表明，需要更好地检查和交流与开放水域和冰下水下管道和泄漏相关的风险，以及修复冰下捕获的石油的选项。此外，我们建议采用决策和风险治理流程，明确扩大对 5 号线等水下管道的社会、经济和环境权衡的分析。