Abstract This paper proposes a robust stochastic stability analysis approach with partly unknown transition probability by considering the wind speed prediction error in power system. Firstly, taking this prediction error into account, based on Markov modeling theory, the stochastic dynamic model of wind power system with uncertain transition probability is developed. Secondly, according to the stochastic stability theory of Markov jump system, the transition probability of wind power system mode is divided into three cases: fully known, only known upper and lower bounds, and completely unknown. Then, by using linear matrix inequality (LMI) technology, a robust stochastic stability criterion with disturbance attenuation is obtained. Finally, test results show that the proposed analysis approach does not need to obtain the trajectory of the actual system operation parameters, and has the advantages of high computational efficiency.

中文翻译：

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基于马尔科夫模型的考虑风速预测误差的电力系统鲁棒随机稳定性分析方法

摘要 考虑电力系统风速预测误差，提出了一种过渡概率部分未知的鲁棒随机稳定性分析方法。首先，考虑到这种预测误差，基于马尔可夫建模理论，建立了转移概率不确定的风电系统随机动力学模型。其次，根据马尔可夫跳跃系统的随机稳定性理论，将风电系统模式的转移概率分为三种情况：完全已知、只知道上下界、完全未知。然后，利用线性矩阵不等式(LMI)技术，得到具有扰动衰减的鲁棒随机稳定性判据。最后，