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Atlantic and Pacific tropics connected by mutually interactive decadal-timescale processes
Nature Geoscience ( IF 18.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-14 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-00669-x
Gerald A. Meehl , Aixue Hu , Frederic Castruccio , Matthew H. England , Susan C. Bates , Gokhan Danabasoglu , Shayne McGregor , Julie M. Arblaster , Shang-Ping Xie , Nan Rosenbloom

Decadal climate prediction presumes there are decadal-timescale processes and mechanisms that, if initialized properly in models, potentially provide predictive skill more than one or two years into the future. Candidate mechanisms involve Pacific decadal variability and Atlantic multidecadal variability, elements of which involve slow fluctuations of tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from positive anomalies (positive phase) to negative anomalies (negative phase). Here we use model experiments to show that there tends to be a weak opposite-sign SST response in the tropical Pacific when observed SSTs are specified in the Atlantic, while there is a weak same-sign SST response in the tropical Atlantic when observed SSTs are specified in the tropical Pacific. Net surface heat flux in the Atlantic and ocean dynamics in the Pacific play contrasting roles in the ocean response to specified SSTs in the respective basins. We propose that processes in the Pacific and Atlantic are sequentially interactive through the atmospheric Walker circulation along with contributions from midlatitude teleconnections for the Atlantic response to the Pacific.



中文翻译:

大西洋和太平洋热带地区之间相互交互的年代-时标过程

年代际气候预测假定存在年代际尺度的过程和机制,如果在模型中正确初始化,则有可能在未来一两年内提供预测技能。候选机制涉及太平洋年代际变化和大西洋多年代际变化,其要素涉及热带太平洋和大西洋海表温度(SSTs)从正异常(正相)到负异常(负相)的缓慢波动。在这里,我们使用模型实验表明,当在大西洋中指定观察到的SST时,热带太平洋中的对号SST响应往往较弱;而当观察到SST时,在热带大西洋中则存在较弱的同号SST响应。在热带太平洋中指定。大西洋中的净表面热通量与太平洋中的海洋动力学在海洋对各个盆地特定SST的响应中起着相反的作用。我们建议,太平洋和大西洋的过程通过大气沃克环流以及中纬度遥距连接对大西洋对太平洋的响应的贡献依次相互作用。

更新日期:2020-12-14
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