Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size‐dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual‐ and population‐level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture–mark–recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture–recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco‐evolutionary mechanisms acting on size‐specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.

中文翻译：

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陆地sal改变体型的人口后果

气候变化会改变个体的体型，由此导致的繁殖和生存变化会影响种群动态和生存能力。但是，需要适当的方法来解决规模依赖的人口变化的问题，尤其是在两栖动物等未被充分研究但仍受威胁的群体中。我们使用捕获标记捕获数据调查了陆地sal的个体大小和人口水平的人口统计学影响。对于我们的分析，我们实现了一个完整的投影模型，该模型使用贝叶斯框架中的捕获-再捕获似然估计进行参数化。我们的研究结合了来自单个数据集的生存和增长数据，以量化规模对生存的影响，同时包括围绕这些参数的不确定性的不同来源，展示了如何在数据有限和重新捕获不充分的人群中研究选择性部队。我们发现人口增长率对个体大小的变化有很强的依赖性，这取决于平均体型和最大体型选择的潜在变化。我们的同时参数估计方法可以扩展到整个分类单元，以识别作用于特定大小生命率的生态进化机制，从而塑造种群动态和生存能力。