Fishery collapse has been defined as a fishery with annual landings less than 10% of the historic maximum observed catch. However, this 10% rule is not grounded in bioeconomic theory despite being widely used in empirical economic studies of fisheries. We assess the 10% rule by simulating fisheries under pure open access, open access with cost changes, open access with critical depensation, optimal management (both deterministic and stochastic cases), and rebuilding plans. We show that the 10% rule generates false negatives and false positives, and that the prevalence of these problems varies under different institutional configurations, economic incentives, and biological conditions. We urge researchers to abandon this outcome measure for comparative empirical tests and encourage more research on collapse that attends to human agency and institutions.

中文翻译：

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重新审视渔业崩溃

渔业崩溃被定义为年上岸量低于历史最大观察捕获量的 10% 的渔业。然而，尽管这一 10% 规则被广泛用于渔业的实证经济研究，但它并不以生物经济理论为基础。我们通过在纯开放获取、成本变化的开放获取、关键依赖的开放获取、优化管理（确定性和随机情况）和重建计划下模拟渔业来评估 10% 规则。我们表明 10% 规则会产生假阴性和假阳性，并且这些问题的普遍性在不同的制度配置、经济激励和生物条件下有所不同。