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Spatiotemporal Variation of COVID-19 and Its Spread in South America: A Rapid Assessment
Annals of the American Association of Geographers ( IF 3.982 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 , DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1830024
Temitope D. Timothy Oyedotun 1 , Stephan Moonsammy 2
Affiliation  

The novel COVID-19 disease has affected people in more than 180 countries, accounting for more than 1 million deaths globally to date. This study intends to explore a rapid spatial and temporal assessment of the COVID-19 disease in South America. Data were gathered from the World Health Organization and analyzed using spatial mapping and statistical software. Models were developed based on the established linear relationship between attributable COVID-19-related deaths and confirmed cases. The study adopted both discrete and continuous panel regression models and spatial lag models for the analysis. Statistical analysis validated the linear relationships noticed in COVID-19 modeling. South America saw a rapid rise in cases and deaths within a relatively short period particularly affecting the countries with larger populations. Spatial models showed a positive relationship between population density and confirmed cases and a negative relationship between per capita gross domestic product and attributable deaths. Confirmed cases are likely to spread with more populated countries but, interestingly, increasing wealth can possibly lead to a fall in deaths for South America. This suggests the country’s capacity to invest in the resources necessary to combat the pandemic and shows insight into the potential situation of less developed countries as the pandemic continues.



中文翻译:

COVID-19 的时空变化及其在南美洲的传播:快速评估

新型 COVID-19 疾病已经影响了 180 多个国家的人们,迄今为止,全球已造成超过 100 万人死亡。本研究旨在探索对南美洲 COVID-19 疾病的快速时空评估。数据是从世界卫生组织收集的,并使用空间制图和统计软件进行分析。模型是根据 COVID-19 相关死亡和确诊病例之间既定的线性关系开发的。该研究采用离散和连续面板回归模型以及空间滞后模型进行分析。统计分析验证了 COVID-19 建模中注意到的线性关系。南美洲的病例和死亡人数在相对较短的时间内迅速上升,特别是对人口较多的国家造成了影响。空间模型显示人口密度与确诊病例之间呈正相关关系,人均国内生产总值与归因死亡之间呈负相关关系。确诊病例可能会在人口较多的国家传播,但有趣的是,财富的增加可能会导致南美洲的死亡人数下降。这表明该国有能力投资于抗击大流行所需的资源,并显示出随着大流行的继续,对欠发达国家的潜在情况的洞察力。财富的增加可能会导致南美洲的死亡人数下降。这表明该国有能力投资于抗击大流行所需的资源,并显示出随着大流行的继续,对欠发达国家的潜在情况的洞察力。财富的增加可能会导致南美洲的死亡人数下降。这表明该国有能力投资于抗击大流行所需的资源,并显示出随着大流行的继续,对欠发达国家的潜在情况的洞察力。

更新日期:2020-12-10
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