Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.

沿海沉降会导致相对海平面上升并加剧洪灾危害，预计到2070年高风险人口将增加两倍。垂直陆地运动的自然过程，例如构造，冰川等静压调整和泥沙压实以及人为过程，例如抽水，导致沉降率整体变化。在这篇评论中，我们讨论了驱动沿海地区垂直陆地运动的关键物理过程。审查了天基和陆基技术的使用以及用于监测沉降的相关不确定性，以及用于解释当代沉降率和获得未来预测的基于物理的模型。在二十世纪，由于构造过程和冰川等静压调整，沉陷和隆升的速率相对稳定且较低。相比之下，由于与沉积物加载和流体抽取相关的压实作用以及大地震，产生了更高且变化很大的沉降率。这些速度可能比当今全球海平面上升速度高两个数量级。需要多目标预测模型来说明驱动沉降的潜在物理过程和社会经济因素。这些速度可能比当今全球海平面上升速度高两个数量级。需要多目标预测模型来说明驱动沉降的潜在物理过程和社会经济因素。这些速度可能比当今全球海平面上升速度高两个数量级。需要多目标预测模型来说明驱动沉降的潜在物理过程和社会经济因素。