Humanity’s impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series.

人类对环境的影响以及保护生物多样性的战略都在增加，但是对干预措施如何影响生态和保护成果的了解不足阻碍了决策。时间序列通常用于评估影响，但是生态学家倾向于比较影响前后的平均值。忽略了干预措施引起趋势变化的潜力。如果没有允许各种响应的方法，则可能得出错误的结论，尤其是对于越来越多的大型，多时间序列的数据集。借鉴其他学科的文献和生态学的开创性工作，我们提出了一个标准化的框架来稳健地评估自然灾害或保护政策等干预措施如何影响生态时间序列。