Genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity are predicted to align with selection surfaces, a prediction that has rarely been empirically tested. Understanding the relationship between sources of phenotypic variation, i.e. genetic variation and plasticity, with selection surfaces improves our ability to predict a population's ability to adapt to a changing environment and our understanding of how selection has shaped phenotypes. Here, we estimated the (co)variances among three different behaviors (activity, aggression, and anti-predator response) in a natural population of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). Using multi-response generalized mixed effects models, we divided the phenotypic covariance matrix into among- and within-individual matrices. The among-individual covariances includes genetic and permanent environmental covariances (e.g. developmental plasticity) and is predicted to align with selection. Simultaneously, we estimated the within-individual (co)variances, which include reversible phenotypic plasticity. To determine whether genetic variation, plasticity and selection align in multivariate space we calculated the dimensions containing the greatest among-individual variation and the dimension in which most plasticity was expressed (i.e. the dominant eigenvector for the among- and within-individual covariance matrices respectively). We estimated selection coefficients based on survival estimates from a mark-recapture model. Alignment between the dominant eigenvectors of behavioural variation and the selection gradient was estimated by calculating the angle between them, with an angle of 0 indicating perfect alignment. The angle between vectors ranged from 68 to 89, indicating that genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity, and selection are misaligned in this population. This misalignment could be due to the behaviors being close to their fitness optima, which is supported by low evolvabilities, or because of low selection pressure on these behaviors.

中文翻译：

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选择，可塑性和个体差异的错位：Manom​​yculus Peromyscus maniculatus对理论预测的检验。

预测遗传变异和表型可塑性与选择表面一致，这一预测很少经过经验检验。通过选择表面了解表型变异的来源之间的关系，即遗传变异和可塑性，可以提高我们预测人群适应变化的环境的能力，以及对选择如何影响表型的理解。在这里，我们估计了自然小鼠鹿（Peromyscus maniculatus）中三种不同行为（活动，攻击和反捕食者反应）之间的（共）方差。使用多响应广义混合效应模型，我们将表型协方差矩阵划分为个体间和个体内矩阵。个体之间的协方差包括遗传和永久环境协方差（例如 发育可塑性），并与选择相符。同时，我们估计了个体内部（共）方差，其中包括可逆的表型可塑性。为了确定遗传变异，可塑性和选择是否在多元空间中对齐，我们计算了包含最大个体间变异的维和表达最大可塑性的维（即个体间协方差矩阵和个体内协方差矩阵的主要特征向量） 。我们基于标记夺回模型的生存估计来估计选择系数。行为变化的主要特征向量和选择梯度之间的对齐方式是通过计算它们之间的角度来估算的，角度为0表示完美对齐。向量之间的夹角范围是68至89，表示该人群的遗传变异，表型可塑性和选择不匹配。这种失调可能是由于行为接近其适应性最佳，这由低可进化性支持，或者是由于对这些行为的选择压力低。