The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

中文翻译：

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固定时间的描述统计量低估了流行曲线组合的极端值

与流行病预测有关的不确定性通常是根据参数组合与流行病轨迹的集合一起模拟的。我们表明，总结这种合奏的标准方法可以系统地抑制重要的流行病学信息。