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Africa Would Need to Import More Maize in the Future Even Under 1.5°C Warming Scenario
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-07 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001574
Ran Zhai 1, 2 , Fulu Tao 1, 2, 3 , Upmanu Lall 4, 5 , Joshua Elliott 6
Affiliation  

Producing enough food to feed a growing population is a great future challenge, especially for vulnerable areas in Africa. There is limited understanding of food security under future climate conditions, particularly under the warming target stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Maize is the most widely cultivated crop in Africa. Taking maize as an example, we present an integrated assessment of maize supply and demand under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios, considering the combined impacts of climate change, technology development and population increase. We find that global warming of 1.5°C or 2.0°C would shorten maize growth duration, aggravate droughts, and consequently reduce yield with a spatially explicit pattern. Maize yield would decrease more under global warming of 2.0°C versus 1.5°C. Benefit of rising CO2 concentration could not fully offset the yield loss due to climate change under global warming of 1.5°C. Technology development can significantly improve the ratio of maize supply to demand, which is however subject to future projections on population and technology development. Under a reasonable logarithmic technology development scenario, maize security would become worse in most of the countries in Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of technology development and adaptation strategies to meet the challenges of food security in the vulnerable regions.

中文翻译:

即使在1.5°C的升温情况下,非洲未来仍需要进口更多玉米

生产足够的粮食来养活不断增长的人口是一个巨大的未来挑战,对非洲的脆弱地区尤其如此。对未来气候条件下,特别是在《巴黎协定》规定的升温目标下对粮食安全的了解有限。玉米是非洲种植最广泛的作物。以玉米为例,考虑到气候变化,技术发展和人口增长的综合影响,我们对1.5°C和2.0°C变暖情景下的玉米供求进行了综合评估。我们发现1.5°C或2.0°C的全球变暖将缩短玉米的生长时间,加剧干旱,并因此以空间明晰的模式降低产量。在全球升温2.0℃与1.5℃的情况下,玉米单产将下降更多。CO 2升高的好处在1.5°C的全球变暖下,由于气候变化而导致的集中度不能完全抵消产量损失。技术发展可以显着提高玉米供求比,但是这有待未来人口和技术发展的预测。在合理的对数技术发展情况下,非洲大多数国家的玉米安全性将恶化。我们的发现强调了技术开发和适应战略对于应对脆弱地区粮食安全挑战的重要性。
更新日期:2021-01-14
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