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A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 16.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-07 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5
John W Williams 1 , Alejandro Ordonez 2 , Jens-Christian Svenning 2
Affiliation  

During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast–slow–abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.



中文翻译:

研究和管理气候驱动的生态变化率的统一框架

在人类世和其他气候快速变化的时代,生态系统的变化速度可以描述为快、慢或突然。快速的生态响应密切跟踪气候变化,缓慢的响应显着滞后于气候强迫,导致不平衡和适应度降低,而突然响应的特点是非线性、阈值型响应,其速率相对于背景变异和强迫而言较大。所有三种气候驱动的生态动力学在当代研究、古生态学和入侵生物学中都有详细记录。这种快-慢-突然的概念框架有助于统一分叉的气候变化文献,这些文献倾向于分别考虑缓慢或突然的生态动态带来的生态风险。鉴于人类世未来几十到几个世纪气候变化的前景以及生态变化速率的广泛变化,管理生态系统的理论和实践应该将注意力从目标状态转移到目标速率。以速率为中心的框架拓宽了管理人员的战略菜单,包括减缓和加速生态变化速率的选项,力求减少气候和生态变化速率之间的不匹配,并提供统一的概念框架来处理与快速增长相关的不同风险。 ,缓慢而突然的生态变化率。

更新日期:2020-12-07
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