Lake ice cover is essential to conserving the global freshwater supply for the 50 million lakes that freeze each winter. Here, we ask when lakes across the Northern Hemisphere may permanently lose ice cover. A K‐means cluster analysis from 31 lakes identified four clusters of lakes vulnerable to losing ice cover, including shallow and deep lakes in regions where winter air temperatures hover ∼0 °C and larger and deeper lakes in colder regions. By the end of this century, we estimate that up to 5,679 lakes of 1.35 million HydroLAKES may permanently lose ice cover if greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) continue to be emitted at current levels. In the Northern Hemisphere, lakes in southern and coastal regions, some of which are among the largest lakes in the world and in close proximity to large human populations, are the most vulnerable to permanently losing ice.

中文翻译：

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预测21世纪北半球冰湖的永久丧失

湖泊冰盖对于保护每年冬天结冰的5000万个湖泊的全球淡水供应至关重要。在这里，我们问北半球的湖泊何时可能永久失去冰盖。一个ķ对31个湖泊进行的均值聚类分析确定了四个容易丢失冰盖的湖泊，包括冬季气温在0°C左右的浅湖和深湖，以及较冷地区的大湖和深湖。到本世纪末，如果温室气体排放量（GHG）继续以目前的水平排放，我们估计多达1,679万个HydroLAKES的5679个湖泊可能永久失去冰盖。在北半球，南部和沿海地区的湖泊最容易永久丧失冰块，其中一些是世界上最大的湖泊之一，并且紧邻大量人口。