Abstract Production of French Polynesia's black pearls is entirely dependent on oceanic conditions. Yet, conditions are changing due to climate change. This research evaluates the potential economic consequences of increased seawater temperature on black pearl production. A stochastic-dynamic bioeconomic simulation simulated the growth of oysters and pearl quality under current and projected seawater temperatures in 2035 in the Northern Tuamotu Archipelago. Production strategies, including grafting intensity, grafting timeframe, and overall pearl quality distribution were included in the simulation to identify production strategies which maximized net present value (NPV) over ten-years. Across all simulated management scenarios, production occurring under projected seawater temperatures resulted in an average decline of 29.1% in expected NPV. Overall, the change in expected NPV stemmed from a decline in the quantity of pearls produced, decline in the quality of pearls produced, and an increase in time between production stages. The optimal production strategy for current and projected seawater temperatures across all management scenarios was to graft a whole cohort of oysters in December with the best possible pearl quality distribution. However, with production occurring with other pearl quality distributions, optimal grafting timeframe and intensity differs between temperature regimes. Aligning production strategies with seawater temperatures can ameliorate economic losses.

中文翻译：

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评估表层海水温度升高对法属波利尼西亚黑珍珠生产的影响：生物经济模拟

摘要 法属波利尼西亚黑珍珠的生产完全取决于海洋条件。然而，由于气候变化，情况正在发生变化。这项研究评估了海水温度升高对黑珍珠生产的潜在经济影响。随机动态生物经济模拟模拟了 2035 年北土阿莫土群岛在当前和预计海水温度下的牡蛎生长和珍珠质量。模拟中包括了生产策略，包括嫁接强度、嫁接时间范围和整体珍珠质量分布，以确定在十年内最大化净现值 (NPV) 的生产策略。在所有模拟管理情景中，在预计海水温度下发生的生产导致预期 NPV 平均下降 29.1%。总体而言，预期 NPV 的变化源于生产珍珠数量的下降、生产的珍珠质量下降以及生产阶段之间的时间增加。在所有管理方案中，当前和预计海水温度的最佳生产策略是在 12 月嫁接具有最佳珍珠质量分布的整群牡蛎。然而，随着生产发生在其他珍珠质量分布中，最佳嫁接时间范围和强度因温度范围而异。根据海水温度调整生产策略可以减少经济损失。在所有管理方案中，当前和预计海水温度的最佳生产策略是在 12 月嫁接具有最佳珍珠质量分布的整群牡蛎。然而，随着生产发生在其他珍珠质量分布中，最佳嫁接时间范围和强度因温度范围而异。根据海水温度调整生产策略可以减少经济损失。在所有管理方案中，当前和预计海水温度的最佳生产策略是在 12 月嫁接具有最佳珍珠质量分布的整群牡蛎。然而，随着生产发生在其他珍珠质量分布中，最佳嫁接时间范围和强度因温度范围而异。根据海水温度调整生产策略可以减少经济损失。