In recent decades, climate change has caused an increase in anomalies in climatic variables and endangered critical infrastructures such as water resources. This change is of paramount importance for southern Iran, especially in the low-precipitation Sistan Plain. Therefore, it is crucial to consider variations in evaporation in the past and the trends of its future changes for water resources planning and management. To manage water resources in the region, this study was conducted to estimate variation in and rate of evaporation from the surface of Chahnimeh reservoirs for future decades using effective climate change models. The SDSM model was applied in 2050–2030 and 2080–2000 periods to simulate evaporation in the coming decades. The values of evaporation under climate change indicate an overall increase of more than 300 mm. According to the results of the WEAP model, much of the Chahnimeh reservoir’s water is consumed by the Zahedan and Zabol urban sectors. A lower share of water is allocated to the agricultural sector of the Sistan Plain compared to these two nodes. The withdrawal rates from these reservoirs will increase with increasing the population growth rate in the coming years. Furthermore, the evaporation rate will also increase. Hence, assuming a constant water flow discharge into the Chahnimeh reservoirs, severe water stress will occur in Sistan Plain and Zahedan water requirement.

近几十年来，气候变化导致气候变量异常增加，并危及水资源等关键基础设施。这种变化对伊朗南部尤其是低降水的锡斯坦平原至关重要。因此，在水资源规划和管理中考虑过去蒸发量的变化及其未来变化趋势至关重要。为了管理该地区的水资源，本研究旨在使用有效的气候变化模型估计未来几十年 Chahnimeh 水库表面蒸发的变化和速率。SDSM 模型应用于 2050-2030 年和 2080-2000 年期间，以模拟未来几十年的蒸发。气候变化下的蒸发值表明总体增加了 300 多毫米。根据 WEAP 模型的结果，Chahnimeh 水库的大部分水被 Zahedan 和 Zabol 城市部门消耗。与这两个节点相比，分配给锡斯坦平原农业部门的水份额较低。这些水库的抽取率将随着未来几年人口增长率的增加而增加。此外，蒸发率也会增加。因此，假设向 Chahnimeh 水库排放恒定水流，锡斯坦平原和扎黑丹需水区将出现严重的缺水压力。这些水库的抽取率将随着未来几年人口增长率的增加而增加。此外，蒸发率也会增加。因此，假设向 Chahnimeh 水库排放恒定水流，锡斯坦平原和扎黑丹需水区将出现严重的缺水压力。这些水库的抽取率将随着未来几年人口增长率的增加而增加。此外，蒸发率也会增加。因此，假设向 Chahnimeh 水库排放恒定水流，锡斯坦平原和扎黑丹需水区将出现严重的缺水压力。