Age-specific fertility distribution of India is skewed and thus deviates from the classical bell-shaped (normal) curve which is evident in fertility data from the developed countries. In the present paper, empirical analysis based on NFHS-3 (2005–06) data is undertaken to propose a new fertility model in order to portray prevalent patterns of single-year age-specific fertility in India. Fertility behaviour among Indian women in the childbearing age groups is modelled as a function of reciprocal of mothers’ ages. Model selection criteria of coefficient of determination and cross-validity prediction power suggest that the proposed polynomial of degree five is a suitable model to describe the varying fertility patterns of India and its sub regions.

中文翻译：

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印度的生育计划建模

印度的特定年龄生育率分布偏斜，因此偏离了发达国家生育率数据中明显的经典钟形（正态）曲线。在本文中，基于 NFHS-3（2005-06）数据进行实证分析，以提出一种新的生育模型，以描绘印度单年特定生育率的普遍模式。印度育龄组妇女的生育行为被建模为母亲年龄倒数的函数。决定系数和交叉有效性预测能力的模型选择标准表明，所提出的五次多项式是描述印度及其子区域不同生育模式的合适模型。