Using longitudinal data from Health and Retirement Surveys over 1992–2010, this paper analyzes decisions by older American to continue smoking and the number of cigarettes to consume using two-part hurdle models with correlated effects. We build on the existing literature by incorporating a myriad of factors including cigarette prices, health shocks and smoke-free laws in one econometric framework. Our estimates indicate that higher cigarette prices play an important role in both reducing participation and the intensity of consumption even for this adult population. In addition, health shocks, as measured by newly diagnosed diseases, raise the probability of quitting, highlighting the ‘curative’ aspects of cessation. However, we find very little effect of health on smoking intensity if an older adult does not quit after a health shock. Per capita cigarette consumption in the US declined by over 64% during the period. We show that increased cigarette prices and health shocks together contribute almost equally to explain nearly 86% of the decline, with little that can be attributed to smoking bans and anti-smoking sentiment.

中文翻译：

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老年人的吸烟行为：使用HRS的面板数据分析

本文使用1992年至2010年健康与退休调查的纵向数据，使用具有相关影响的两部分障碍模型，分析了美国老年人决定继续吸烟和消费香烟的数量。我们在现有文献的基础上，将无数因素（包括卷烟价格，健康冲击和无烟法律）纳入一个计量经济学框架。我们的估计表明，即使对于这个成年人口，较高的卷烟价格在降低参与度和消费强度方面也起着重要作用。此外，以新诊断出的疾病来衡量，健康冲击会增加戒烟的可能性，突出表明戒烟的“治愈性”方面。但是，如果老年人在健康休克后不戒烟，我们发现健康对吸烟强度的影响很小。在此期间，美国的人均卷烟消费量下降了64％以上。我们表明，卷烟价格上涨和健康冲击几乎可以同等地解释近86％的下降趋势，其中几乎没有归因于禁烟令和反吸烟情绪。