It is a general observation that foresight is analogised with forecast. Yet foresight, or futures thinking, is not predictive or deterministic. The misperception appears to be based on the belief that foresight does not often result in tangible results that are immediately applicable within an executive or policy decision arena. Foresight, it is assumed, is unfounded on reality and thus not relevant to fast tempo or strategic level operations. This paper contends that the use of evidence-based methods allows foresight work to be immediately operational and useful.Using a case study of nuclear weapon security within Pakistan, this paper explores the structured use of systems thinking, scenario development and options analysis to develop plausible, feasible and actionable strategic policy options. The case study demonstrates that it is possible to develop quantifiable options derived out of traditional foresight methods. This paper argues that useful foresight needs to be tangible and provide feasible options.

中文翻译：

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使用系统思维设计可行的期货：核武器的例子

一般观察认为，预见与预测相类似。然而，远见或未来思维并非预测性或确定性的。误解似乎是基于这样的信念，即远见往往不会产生可立即在行政或政策决策领域应用的实际结果。可以预见，远见是没有根据的，因此与快速节奏或战略层面的操作无关。本文认为，使用基于证据的方法可以使远见卓识的工作立即可操作并有用。本文以巴基斯坦境内的核武器安全为例，探讨了系统思考，情景发展和选择分析的结构化使用，以开发合理的方法。 ，可行和可行的战略政策选择。案例研究表明，有可能开发出源自传统先见之明方法的可量化选择。本文认为，有用的预见需要切实可行并提供可行的选择。