The present paper provides a meta-study of security and defence foresight documents by the Atlantic Alliance, European Union and various official bodies linked to the Defence Ministries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and United States. It focuses on the political and social trends impacting on defence and military issues. In global terms, the following can be discerned: rivalry among major powers, with armed conflict between some not ruled out entirely; armed non-state actors strengthened by new technologies; global competition for natural resources; extensive demographic imbalances and migration flows; global risks associated with fragile states. In terms of European internal policy, the following trends are identified: population ageing and the challenges associated with immigrant integration; empowerment of interest-based and identity networks. The paper begins by familiarising readers with the characteristics of foresight documents and the methodologies used in their preparation.

中文翻译：

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全球安全未来的政治和社会趋势。关于欧洲和北美官方观点的元研究

本文提供了由大西洋联盟，欧盟和与加拿大，法国，德国，意大利，西班牙，英国和美国的国防部有关的各种官方机构进行的安全和国防前瞻性文件的元研究。它着重于影响国防和军事问题的政治和社会趋势。从全球范围来看，可以看出以下几点：主要大国之间的竞争，有些国家之间的武装冲突并未完全排除；新技术加强了武装的非国家行为者；全球自然资源竞争；广泛的人口失衡和移民流动；与脆弱国家相关的全球风险。在欧洲内部政策方面，确定了以下趋势：人口老龄化和与移民融合有关的挑战；增强基于兴趣的身份网络。本文首先通过使读者熟悉预见性文档的特征以及其准备工作中使用的方法来进行学习。