Population growth is probably the greatest global challenge of the twenty-first century and fertility is a central element of this growth. Fertility is a human attribute which depends almost entirely on social, economic, political, cultural and psychological frameworks, making fertility intention an element of what individuals learn from a very young age as part of their socialisation into society. The fundamental significance of socio-psychological, environmental and cultural factors in what adolescents are assimilating on fertility cannot be exaggerated, yet, relevant information is limited. Eight factors deduced from ecological model and theory of planned behaviour were used to predict fertility intention among a cohort of Nigerian adolescents, using cross-sectional design. Mean fertility intention was 4.06 ± 1.34. Age and religion had no effect, but gender did. Self esteem, perceived parental expectation of fertility, attitude towards fertility and peer-related subjective norm are significant predictors. Media and ethnic attitude are insignificant predictors of, but are significantly related to fertility intention. Attitude towards a four-child family and perceived behavioural control yielded insignificant relationships with, and also failed to predict fertility intention. Perceived parental expectation of fertility, an interpersonal factor of the ecological model is the single most important predictor (β = 0.707, R² = 0.506, r  = 0.711, and partial r  = 0.710). Fertility intention points towards fertility decline, though sluggish and diminutive, thereby failing to reflect the need of Nigeria’s population pyramid to thin out from the base.

中文翻译：

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后代和人口增长：尼日利亚青少年群体的生育意愿

人口增长可能是二十一世纪最大的全球挑战，而生育率是这一增长的核心要素。生育力是一种人的属性，几乎完全取决于社会，经济，政治，文化和心理框架，使生育力成为个人从很小的时候就融入社会的学习内容的要素。不能夸大青少年吸收生育力的社会心理，环境和文化因素的根本意义，但相关信息有限。利用生态学模型和计划行为理论推导出的八个因素，通过横断面设计用于预测尼日利亚青少年队列中的生育意愿。平均生育意向为4.06±1.34。年龄和宗教没有影响，但是性别却没有。自尊，父母对生育的期望，对生育的态度以及与同伴相关的主观规范是重要的预测指标。媒体和种族态度是微不足道的预测指标，但与生育意愿密切相关。对四口之家的态度和感知的行为控制与人之间的关系微不足道，也无法预测生育意愿。父母对生育能力的期望，生态模型的人际关系是唯一最重要的预测因子（β= 0.707，R 但与生育意图密切相关。对四口之家的态度和感知的行为控制与人之间的关系微不足道，也无法预测生育意愿。父母对生育能力的期望，生态模型的人际关系是唯一最重要的预测因子（β= 0.707，R 但与生育意图密切相关。对四口之家的态度和感知的行为控制与人之间的关系微不足道，也无法预测生育意愿。父母对生育能力的期望，生态模型的人际关系是唯一最重要的预测因子（β= 0.707，R²  = 0.506， r  = 0.711，部分 r  = 0.710）。生育意向指向生育力下降，尽管速度缓慢且小巧，但未能反映出尼日利亚人口金字塔从基础上消瘦的需要。