Re-introduction of Eurasian Lynx to Scotland is being considered. Work by others has provided an ecological rationale for reintroduction and trial re-introductions are proposed on the Scottish border. This paper presents an Agent Based Model which simulates the potential for individual lynx to successfully disperse from a release point, using movement rules derived from observation of wild lynx in Europe. Results suggest high mortality from road crossings could hinder effective dispersal. The model is used to suggest the strongest candidate release site based on dispersal with and without a road mortality effect. This occurs in the Galloway Forest Park. The model is built using open source tool Netlogo, the programming language is relatively straightforward and extensible so other life events and human interactions can be modelled. Movement parameters can easily be reset to explore other hypothesised movement patterns. This paper contributes to spatio-temporal understanding of lynx dispersal, via a dynamic visual representation of movement in an ABM. This may help appraise the case for re-introduction in a particular location as well as providing a discursive tool that may help to understand and resolve concerns of community stakeholders, which would aid development of suitable policies. Model code is available via online repository: https://github.com/DrIanPhilips/LynxABM.

中文翻译：

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如果重新引入苏格兰，则基于Agent的模型估计Lynx的扩散

正在考虑将欧亚山猫重新引入苏格兰。其他人的工作为重新引入生态学提供了依据，并提议在苏格兰边境重新引入试验。本文提出了一种基于代理的模型它使用从欧洲野生天猫观察得出的移动规则，模拟了单个天猫从释放点成功散布的潜力。结果表明，人行横道的高死亡率可能会阻碍有效的分散。该模型用于根据具有和不具有道路死亡率影响的分散来建议最强的候选物释放部位。这发生在加洛韦森林公园。该模型是使用开放源代码工具Netlogo构建的，该编程语言相对简单易扩展，因此可以对其他生活事件和人类交互进行建模。可以轻松地重置运动参数，以探索其他假设的运动模式。本文通过ABM中运动的动态视觉表示，为时空理解天猫的传播做出了贡献。这可能有助于评估在特定位置重新引入的案例，并提供一种推论工具，可以帮助理解和解决社区利益相关者的担忧，这将有助于制定适当的政策。可以通过在线存储库获取模型代码：https：//github.com/DrIanPhilips/LynxABM。