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Delayed Reporting of Faults in Warranty Claims
IEEE Transactions on Reliability ( IF 5.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.1109/tr.2019.2957503
Richard Arnold , Stefanka Chukova , Yu Hayakawa

In this article, we present a model for delayed reporting of faults: multiple nonfatal faults are accumulated and then simultaneously reported and repaired. The reporting process is modeled as a stochastic process dependent on the underlying stochastic process generating the faults. We derive the joint distribution of the reporting times and numbers of reported faults, giving general results and results specific to faults generated by a Poisson process. We investigate a number of extensions to the basic model, including multiple fault types (including invisible and fatal faults), preventative maintenance, and customer rush. We show how to simulate from the model and implement maximum likelihood parameter estimation in a simulated dataset and a real dataset of warranty claims from a car manufacturer.

中文翻译:

保修索赔中的故障延迟报告

在本文中,我们提出了一个延迟报告故障的模型:累积多个非致命故障,然后同时报告和修复。报告过程被建模为依赖于产生故障的潜在随机过程的随机过程。我们推导出报告时间和报告故障数量的联合分布,给出一般结果和特定于泊松过程生成的故障的结果。我们研究了基本模型的许多扩展,包括多种故障类型(包括隐形故障和致命故障)、预防性维护和客户抢购。我们展示了如何从模型进行模拟并在模拟数据集和汽车制造商保修索赔的真实数据集中实现最大似然参数估计。
更新日期:2020-12-01
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