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An empirical approach toward the SLCP reduction targets in Asia for the mid-term climate change mitigation
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-04 , DOI: 10.1186/s40645-020-00385-5
Hajime Akimoto , Tatsuya Nagashima , Hiroshi Tanimoto , Zbigniew Klimont , Markus Amann

Although importance of co-control of SLCPs together with the emission reduction of CO2 has attracted much attention for the mid-term climate change mitigation, the contribution to radiative forcing (RF) is rather complex, and chemistry-climate model analysis for the future scenario tends to give a “black box” for the contribution of each species. In order to deliver a more straightforward message on the effect of the reduction of SLCPs to policymakers, we propose “top-down” reduction targets of CH4 and tropospheric O3 in reference to the historical levels of their RF. Although the RF increase due to the increasing CO2 concentration is inevitable in mid-term future (ca. 0.80 W m−2 in 2040), the RF of CH4 and O3 is expected to decrease from 0.48 to 0.41, 0.34, 0.27, and 0.22 W m−2, and from 0.40 to 0.29, 0.23, 0.19, and 0.15 W m−2, respectively, if their atmospheric concentrations decrease from the level of 2010 to those of 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, according to the IPCC 2013 database. Consequently, the sum of ΔRFx(CH4) and ΔRFx(O3) (the difference of RF between the target year of x and 2010 as the base year) are 0.18, 0.31, 0.42, and 0.51 W m−2 in 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, indicating that the increase of ΔRF2040(CO2) can be compensated by 23, 39, 53, and 64%, respectively. The policy target can be selected from the combination of different target years each for CH4 and O3. With this global reduction ratio, the necessary reductions in CH4, NOx, and NMVOC in Asia were estimated and compared with the GAINS model-based cost-beneficial reduction amount proposed by the Solution Report prepared under UN Environment Asia and the Pacific Office. In order to attain the targeted reduced emission level of CH4 and NOx, new technology/practice for the reduction of livestock emission of CH4 and energy transformation from fossil fuel to renewable energy is highly advantageous for NOx reduction from industrial/power plant sources.



中文翻译:

在亚洲实现中期气候变化减缓SLCP削减目标的经验方法

尽管SLCP的共同控制和减少CO 2排放的重要性已在中期缓解气候变化问题上引起了广泛关注,但对辐射强迫(RF)的贡献相当复杂,并且未来的化学气候模型分析也很重要这种情况往往会给每个物种的贡献提供一个“黑匣子”。为了向决策者传达关于减少SLCP的影响的更直接的信息,我们建议参考CH 4和对流层O 3的历史水平,提出“自上而下”的减排目标。尽管由于中期CO 2浓度的增加而导致RF的增加是不可避免的(2040年约为0.80 W m -2),但是CH的RF如果4和O 3的大气浓度从4降低到0.41、0.34、0.27和0.22 W m -2,并且预期从4降低到0.49、0.23、0.23、0.19和0.15 W m -2,则O 4会降低。根据IPCC 2013数据库,2010年的水平为1980、1970、1960和1950年的水平。因此,ΔRF的总和X(CH 4)和ΔRF X(O 3)(在RF的所述目标之间一年差X和2010为基准年)是0.18,0.31,0.42,和0.51女男-2在1980,1970,1960,和1950,这表明ΔRF的增加2040(CO 2)分别可以补偿23%,39%,53%和64%。可以从CH 4和O 3的不同目标年份的组合中选择策略目标。通过这种全球减少率,可以估算出亚洲所需的CH 4,NO x和NMVOC减少量,并将其与联合国环境署亚洲及太平洋办公室根据《解决方案报告》提出的基于GAINS模型的成本效益减少量进行比较。为了达到目标的减少的CH 4和NO x排放水平,减少牲畜的CH 4排放以及从化石燃料到可再生能源的能源转换的新技术/新方法对NO非常有利x来自工业/发电厂的减排量。

更新日期:2020-12-04
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