A new design for microtracked concentrating photovoltaics (mCPVs) published by one of us in Nature Energy has the same form factor as PV. This paper analyzes the cost below which it would compete with PV in behind‐the‐meter applications for commercial electricity customers in four cities in southern United States, assuming that the only significant differences between mCPV and PV are mCPV's higher efficiency and mCPV's inability to utilize sunlight that is either diffuse or has a high angle of incidence. The analysis first optimizes PV and mCPV microgrids and then selects the battery capacity that maximizes the internal rate of return (IRR) and selects a target mCPV installed cost for which the optimal mCPV IRR matches the optimal PV IRR. The result for projects starting in 2020 is $1.2/W in Lancaster, CA and Las Vegas, cities with similar ratios of direct to total irradiance. Modesto, CA and Kansas City have target mCPV installed costs of $1.07/W and $0.94/W, respectively. The electricity tariff and battery costs impact both PV and mCPV and have a minimal effect on the mCPV cost at which the two technologies compete. mCPV occupies 33.2% less area per watt than PV reducing some components of installed cost. In 2020, target mCPV module costs are $0.33/W in Lancaster and Las Vegas, $0.25/W in Modesto, and $0.17/W in Kansas City. These target costs decline by on average 9.6% per year for projects starting 2021–2025, similar to the 9.3% rate of decline in projected PV module costs over this period.

中文翻译：

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一种微跟踪聚光光伏组件新型设计的经济分析

我们中的一个人在《自然能源》中发表了一种微跟踪聚光光伏（mCPV）的新设计，其外形尺寸与PV相同。本文分析了在美国南部四个城市的商业用电客户的后台应用中与PV竞争的成本，假设mCPV和PV之间唯一的显着差异是mCPV的更高效率和mCPV无法利用漫反射或高入射角的阳光。该分析首先优化PV和mCPV微电网，然后选择使内部收益率（IRR）最大化的电池容量，然后选择已安装的目标mCPV最佳mCPV IRR与最佳PV IRR相匹配的成本。在2020年开始的项目结果是，在兰卡斯特，加利福尼亚和拉斯维加斯的直接辐射与总辐射比相似的城市为$ 1.2 / W。莫德斯托，加利福尼亚州和堪萨斯城的目标mCPV安装成本分别为$ 1.07 / W和$ 0.94 / W。电价和电池成本会同时影响PV和mCPV，并且对这两种技术竞争的mCPV成本影响很小。mCPV的每瓦面积比PV减少33.2％，从而减少了某些组件的安装成本。2020年，目标为mCPV模块成本在兰开斯特和拉斯维加斯为0.33美元/瓦，在莫德斯托为0.25美元/瓦，在堪萨斯城为0.17美元/瓦。从2021年至2025年开始的项目，这些目标成本平均每年下降9.6％，与这段时期内预计的光伏组件成本下降9.3％的速度相似。