The inland waterways in the United States (U.S.) transport approximately 20% of coal, 22% of petroleum products, and 60% of farm exports making these waterways a significant contributor to the U.S. multimodal transportation system. In this study, data of extreme natural events affecting the U.S. inland waterways are collected and used to predict possible occurrences of such events using a spatio-temporal statistical model. A simulation tool incorporating this model is developed to investigate the impact of waterway disruptions on the interconnected multimodal transportation systems. A case study on the lower Mississippi River and the McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System along with the related highways is provided to illustrate the use of the simulation tool for operation simulation and interdependence modeling of the multimodal transportation network. This tool provides a flexible means for quickly evaluating the performance of such Interdependent Critical Infrastructures (ICIs) and assisting in decision making.

美国的内陆水路运输了约20％的煤炭，22％的石油产品和60％的农产品出口，这些水路为美国多式联运系统做出了重要贡献。在这项研究中，收集了影响美国内陆水道的极端自然事件的数据，并使用时空统计模型将其用于预测此类事件的可能发生。开发了包含此模型的仿真工具，以研究水路中断对相互连接的多式联运系统的影响。通过对密西西比河下游和McClellan–Kerr Arkansas河流导航系统以及相关公路的案例研究，说明了该仿真工具在多式联运网络的运行仿真和相互依赖建模中的应用。该工具提供了一种灵活的方法，可以快速评估这种相互依赖的关键基础架构（ICI）的性能并协助决策。