Abstract We find a consistent relation between orbital geometry and components of the climate system by returning to Milankovitch’s original hypotheses and focusing on the well-established physical concepts of an equilibrium state, disequilibrium from that state, and adjustment towards equilibrium. These mechanisms imply that the state of the climate system at any time depends on; (1) the state of the climate system in the previous period, (2) the degree to which this previous state is out-of-equilibrium with orbital geometry, and (3) the rate at which the climate system adjusts towards equilibrium. We evaluate this explanation by running experiments with a statistical model of climate that explicitly represents equilibria among variables and their movements towards equilibrium. Results indicate that; (1) skipped obliquity/precession beats are an artifact of ignoring adjustments towards an equilibrium state, (2) accounting for equilibrium and adjustments to equilibrium can account for all phases of the glacial cycle, and (3) glacial cycles are generated by adjustments to equilibrium relations between orbital geometry and climate and among components of the climate system. Together, these results suggest a new approach to understanding glacial cycles that is based on models which include a rich set of equilibria and adjustments to equilibria for a full suite of climate variables simulated over long periods.

中文翻译：

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了解冰川周期：多元不平衡方法

摘要 我们通过回到米兰科维奇最初的假设并关注平衡状态、与该状态的不平衡以及向平衡进行调整的公认物理概念，发现了轨道几何与气候系统组成部分之间的一致关系。这些机制意味着气候系统在任何时候的状态都取决于；(1) 前一时期气候系统的状态，(2) 前一状态与轨道几何形状不平衡的程度，以及 (3) 气候系统向平衡调整的速度。我们通过使用气候统计模型进行实验来评估这种解释，该模型明确表示变量之间的平衡及其向平衡的运动。结果表明；(1) 跳过的倾角/岁差节拍是忽略向平衡状态调整的产物，(2) 考虑到平衡和对平衡的调整可以说明冰川周期的所有阶段，以及 (3) 冰川周期是通过调整轨道几何与气候之间以及气候系统组成部分之间的平衡关系。总之，这些结果提出了一种理解冰川周期的新方法，该方法基于模型，其中包括一组丰富的平衡和对长期模拟的全套气候变量的平衡调整。(3) 冰川周期是通过调整轨道几何形状与气候之间以及气候系统组成部分之间的平衡关系而产生的。总之，这些结果提出了一种理解冰川周期的新方法，该方法基于模型，其中包括一组丰富的平衡和对长期模拟的全套气候变量的平衡调整。(3) 冰川周期是通过调整轨道几何形状与气候之间以及气候系统组成部分之间的平衡关系而产生的。总之，这些结果提出了一种理解冰川周期的新方法，该方法基于模型，其中包括一组丰富的平衡和对长期模拟的全套气候变量的平衡调整。