The amount of ultimately recoverable resources and/or timing of peak production have been the central purpose of numerous studies. One broadly applied method is Hubbert modeling, subsequently extended as multicyclic Hubbert modeling. This paper explores a modification to conventional multicyclic Hubbert modeling that we term “cycle‐jumping” wherein the overlap of multiple curves is limited and explicitly accounted for. The model is designed in a way that each curve is described by the same three parameters as a multicyclic Hubbert model, and every two curves are connected through an explicit transition. The transition width indicates the time of the shift from one curve to the next and is controlled by a weighting parameter for the respective curves. Cycle‐jumping provides a superior data fit compared to the conventional cycle‐addition model and, more important, reflects historical production data more realistically as socioeconomic and political factors important to resource production vary in time.

中文翻译：

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资源生产多循环哈伯特建模的跳跳方法

最终可回收资源的数量和/或高峰生产时间已成为众多研究的中心目的。一种广泛应用的方法是Hubbert建模，随后扩展为多循环Hubbert建模。本文探讨了对传统多循环Hubbert建模的一种改进，我们将其称为“循环跳跃”，其中多个曲线的重叠受到限制并得到明确考虑。该模型的设计方式是，每条曲线由与多环Hubbert模型相同的三个参数来描述，每两条曲线通过显式过渡连接。过渡宽度表示从一条曲线移到另一条曲线的时间，并由各个曲线的加权参数控制。与传统的循环附加模型相比，循环跳跃可提供出色的数据拟合，并且