Dynamic range models are proposed to investigate species distributions and to project range shifts under climate change. They are based upon the Hutchinsonian niche theory, specifying that the occurrence of a species in an environmental space should be limited to positions where the intrinsic growth rate is positive. Evaluating population growth rate is, however, difficult for physiologically structured populations, such as forest stands, owing to size‐induced individual variation in performance. Therefore, we still have a limited understanding of which aspect of tree demography contributes the most to their geographical range limit. We develop an index of demographic performance for size‐structured populations and study its variation across a climatic gradient. We then investigate the relationship between the demographic performance index and species distribution.

中文翻译：

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气候导致的14种树种的人口变化不足以解释其在北美东部的分布

提出了动态范围模型来研究物种分布并预测气候变化下的范围变化。它们基于哈钦森（Hutchinsonian）生态位理论，规定在环境空间中物种的出现应限于内在增长率为正的位置。但是，由于林分大小等生理上结构性的种群，由于种群大小导致的性能差异，评估种群的增长率是困难的。因此，我们对树木人口统计的哪个方面对它们的地理范围限制贡献最大的了解仍然有限。我们为规模结构化的人口建立了人口统计指标，并研究了其在整个气候梯度上的变化。