The possibility of identifying or creating a system of moral requirements that regulates the reaction of society to possible threats is discussed. First, an attempt is made to verify the ability of the basic normative programs of morality to form the basis for such a system. The author argues that the ethics of absolute prohibitions, the ethics of human rights, and the ethics of virtue are faced with insurmountable difficulties. Utilitarianism integrates the probability factor into the logic of making morally significant decisions much more easily, but in this practical context, too, it needs a serious transformation regarding metrics and structure. To denote the result of such a transformation, the author uses the concept introduced by R. Ericson and A. Doyle—“the morality of responsibility and accountability.” Second, the main problems associated with this type of morality are analyzed. It is their solution that completes the image of this normative phenomenon. For the morality of responsibility and accountability to fulfill its role, the following are necessary: (a) to form a type of moral consciousness that would be adapted to the influence of judgments about the probability of certain events on moral assessments, (b) to find the best ways to assign probability indices to future events, (c) to overcome psychological and sociocultural biases regarding the assessment of the probability of events, (d) to establish morally justified discount rates for the future, and (e) to determine the proper reaction of society not only to the risk of threats but also to the uncertainty regarding their likelihood (which allows the selective application of the precautionary principle).

中文翻译：

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道德、概率和风险

讨论了确定或创建道德要求系统的可能性，以规范社会对可能威胁的反应。首先，试图验证道德的基本规范程序是否能够形成这样一个系统的基础。笔者认为，绝对禁止伦理、人权伦理、美德伦理都面临着不可逾越的困难。功利主义将概率因素整合到更容易做出具有道德意义的决策的逻辑中，但在这个实际背景下，它也需要在度量和结构方面进行认真的转变。为了表示这种转变的结果，作者使用了 R. Ericson 和 A. Doyle 引入的概念——“责任和问责的道德”。第二，分析了与这种道德相关的主要问题。正是他们的解决方案完成了这种规范现象的形象。为了使责任和问责的道德发挥其作用，以下是必要的：（a）形成一种道德意识，以适应对某些事件的可能性的判断对道德评估的影响，（b）找到将概率指数分配给未来事件的最佳方法，(c) 克服关于事件概率评估的心理和社会文化偏见，(d) 为未来建立道德上合理的贴现率，