A new equation for predicting Japanese instrumental seismic intensities at arbitrary surface sites in Japan for Mw 5.4–8.7 and distances ranging from 10 to 1000 km was derived from approximately 30,000 observed intensities for various types of earthquakes. The equation incorporates the differences in the subsurface characteristics immediately beneath each site using VS30⁠. The equation can also predict the abnormal intensities (which are indispensable in Japan) due to subducting slabs using the depth of the slab surface beneath each site from the Crustal Activity Modeling Program standard plate model. The prediction equation can be applied to five source types: Pacific Ocean plate (PAC) interplate, PAC intraplate, very shallow crustal, shallow (⁠≤50 km⁠) Philippine Sea plate (PHS) intraplate, and intermediate‐depth (⁠>50 km⁠) PHS intraplate earthquakes. Although the equation is applicable at various magnitudes and distances, the standard deviations (⁠σ⁠) are 0.5–0.6, which are smaller than those of other equations with narrower distance ranges. Smaller σ values were achieved by the inversion of 29,837 Japanese instrumental seismic intensities from 68 selected earthquakes of five source types with a common site effect at each station. A deep Mw 7.9 earthquake that occurred at a depth of 680 km in 2015 near the Ogasawara Islands and subjected all of Japan to long‐duration shaking due to waves propagating through the mantle was effectively employed to constrain the VS30 term of the equation. The equations for PAC interplate and very shallow earthquakes were validated by seven earthquakes that were not used for the inversion; the standard deviations for these earthquakes fell in the range of 0.41–0.53. The formula for very shallow crustal earthquakes is also able to predict the intensities of PHS interplate earthquakes. Hence, this equation is useful not only for engineering applications but also for historical seismology to distinguish the source types of ancient earthquakes.

中文翻译：

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反映日本震源类型特征的日本仪器地震烈度的新地面运动预测方程

从大约30,000种观测到的各种地震烈度中得出了一个新的方程，用于预测日本在任意表面站点的日本仪器地震烈度为5.4-8.7兆瓦，距离为10至1000 km。该方程式使用VS30⁠合并了每个位置正下方的地下特征的差异。该公式还可以使用“地壳活动建模程序”标准板模型中每个位置下方的平板表面深度来预测由于俯冲平板而引起的异常强度（在日本是不可缺少的）。该预测方程式可应用于五种震源类型：太平洋板块（PAC）板块，PAC板块，极浅的地壳，浅（⁠≤50km⁠）菲律宾海板块（PHS）板块和中深度（⁠> 50km⁠）PHS板内地震。尽管该方程式适用于各种幅度和距离，但标准偏差（？σ⁠）为0.5-0.6，比其他距离范围较窄的方程式小。通过从五种类型的68种选定地震中反转29,837种日本仪器地震烈度，获得较小的σ值，每个站点具有共同的站点效应。2015年，小gas原群岛附近680公里深度发生的7.9级Mw深地震有效地限制了方程式的VS30项。PAC板间地震和极浅地震的方程由未用于反演的七次地震验证。这些地震的标准偏差在0.41-0.53之间。极浅地壳地震的公式也可以预测PHS板间地震的强度。因此，该方程不仅对工程应用有用，而且对历史地震学有用，以区分古代地震的震源类型。