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Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of PET, PE, and PP Flows in Europe: Evaluation of the Potential for Circular Economy
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 11.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-22 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c03435
Marie Kampmann Eriksen 1 , Kostyantyn Pivnenko 1 , Giorgia Faraca 2 , Alessio Boldrin 1 , Thomas Fruergaard Astrup 1
Affiliation  

This study evaluates the potential circularity of PET, PE, and PP flows in Europe based on dynamic material flow analysis (MFA), considering product lifetimes, demand growth rates, and quality reductions of recycled plastic (downcycling). The circularity was evaluated on a baseline scenario, representing 2016 conditions, and on prospective scenarios representing key circularity enhancing initiatives, including (i) maintaining constant plastic consumption, (ii) managing waste plastic exports in the EU, (iii) design-for-recycling initiatives, (iv) improved collection, and (v) improved recovery and reprocessing. Low recycling rates (RR, 13–20%) and dependence on virgin plastic, representing 85–90% of the annual plastic demand, were demonstrated after 50 years in the baseline. Limited improvements were related to the individual scenarios, insufficient to meet existing recycling targets. However, by combining initiatives, RRs above 55%, where 75–90% was recycled in a closed loop, were demonstrated. Moreover, 40–65% of the annual demand could potentially be covered by recycled plastic. Maintaining a constant plastic demand over time was crucial in order to reduce the absolute dependence on virgin plastic, which was not reflected by the RR. Thus, focusing strictly on RRs and even whether and to which extent virgin material is substituted, is insufficient for evaluating the transition toward circularity, which cannot be achieved by technology improvements alone—the demand must also be stabilized.

中文翻译:

欧洲PET,PE和PP流动的动态物料流分析:对循环经济潜力的评估

这项研究基于动态材料流分析(MFA)评估了欧洲PET,PE和PP的潜在流通量,其中考虑了产品寿命,需求增长率和再生塑料的质量下降(降级)。在代表2016年情况的基准情景和代表关键循环性增强计划的前瞻性情景下评估了圆形度,包括(i)保持恒定的塑料消耗量,(ii)管理欧盟的废塑料出口,(iii)针对回收倡议,(iv)改善收集,(v)改善回收和后处理。低回收率(RR(13%至20%)和对原始塑料的依赖(占年度塑料需求量的85%至90%)在基准线运行50年后得到证明。与个别方案有关的改进有限,不足以满足现有的回收目标。但是,通过结合各种举措,已证明RR高于55%,其中75-90%的闭环再循环。此外,回收塑料可以满足年需求的40-65%。为了减少对原始塑料的绝对依赖性,保持一段时间内恒定的塑料需求至关重要,这未得到《无线电规则》的反映。。因此,仅关注RR,甚至仅关注原始材料是否被替换以及在何种程度上进行替换,都不足以评估向圆度的转变,而这仅靠技术改进是无法实现的,需求也必须稳定下来。
更新日期:2020-12-15
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