Environmental stressors related to climate change and other anthropogenic activities are impacting Arctic marine ecosystems at exceptional rates. Within this context, predicting future scenarios of deep-sea ecosystems and their consequences linked with the fate of coastal areas is a growing need and challenge. We used an existing food-web model developed to represent the outer basin of the Malangen fjord, a northern Norwegian deep-sea ecosystem, to assess the potential effects of plausible future trajectories of change for major drivers in the area, including links to coastal kelp forests. We considered four major drivers (kelp particulate organic matter [POM] production entering the deep sea, fishing effort, king crab invasion, and ocean warming) to project 12 future scenarios using the temporal dynamic module of Ecopath with Ecosim approach. Overall, we found that the impact of warming on the deep-sea ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as on ecosystem services, are predicted to be greater than changes in kelp forest dynamics and their POM production entering the deep sea and the king crab invasion. Yet, the cumulative impacts are predicted to be more important than noncumulative since some stressors acted synergistically. These results illustrate the vulnerability of sub-Arctic and Arctic marine ecosystems to climate change and consequently call for conservation, restoration, and adaptation measures in deep-sea and adjacent ecosystems. Results also highlight the importance of considering additional stressors affecting deep-sea communities to predict cumulative impacts in an ecosystem-based management and global change context and the interlinkages between coastal and deep-sea environments.

中文翻译：

---

与沿海海藻林相连的北极深海生态系统的未来变化轨迹

与气候变化和其他人为活动相关的环境压力因素正以异常的速度影响北极海洋生态系统。在此背景下，预测深海生态系统的未来情景及其与沿海地区命运相关的后果是一项日益增长的需求和挑战。我们使用现有的食物网模型来代表挪威北部深海生态系统马兰根峡湾的外盆地，以评估可能的未来变化轨迹对该地区主要驱动因素的潜在影响，包括与沿海海带的联系森林。我们考虑了四个主要驱动因素（进入深海的海带颗粒有机物 [POM] 生产、捕捞努力、帝王蟹入侵和海洋变暖），使用 Ecopath 和 Ecosim 方法的时间动态模块来预测 12 个未来情景。总体而言，我们发现变暖对深海生态系统结构和功能以及生态系统服务的影响预计大于海带森林动态及其进入深海的 POM 生产和帝王蟹入侵的变化。 . 然而，由于一些压力因素协同作用，预计累积影响比非累积影响更重要。这些结果说明了亚北极和北极海洋生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性，因此呼吁在深海和邻近生态系统中采取保护、恢复和适应措施。