Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper’s objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

中文翻译：

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空间显式随机模拟模型在地方性口蹄疫控制中应用的挑战：系统评价

模拟建模已成为估计高度传染性动物疾病传播的常见方法。已经开发了多种模型来模拟口蹄疫 (FMD) 在特定地区或国家的传播、进行风险评估、使用历史数据或假设情景分析疫情、协助流行期间的政策决策、制定防范计划以及评估经济影响。大多数可用的 FMD 模拟模型是为无病国家设计和应用的，而这些模型在 FMD 流行国家的使用有限。本文的目的是报告一项研究的结果，该研究旨在回顾现有已发表的关于 FMD 传播的空间显性随机模拟 (SESS) 模型的原始研究文献，重点评估这些模型在流行环境中的潜在用途。目标是确定地方性口蹄疫的特定组成部分，以适应这些 SESS 模型在 FMD 地方性环境中的潜在应用。本系统评价遵循 PRISMA 指南，检索了三个数据库，共引用了 1176 次。80 次引文最终符合纳入标准，并被纳入定性综合，确定了九个独特的 SESS 模型。评估了这些 SESS 模型在地方性环境中的潜在应用。评估的 SESS 模型可以通过修改基础代码以包括多种共同循环血清型、常规预防性疫苗接种 (RPV)、和牲畜种群动态，以更真实地模拟 FMD 的地方性特征。SESS 模型在流行环境中的应用将有助于评估口蹄疫控制策略，这将改善牲畜健康，为生产者提供经济收益，帮助减轻贫困和饥饿，并将补充实现可持续发展目标的努力。