Abstract

My central interest is decision making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. A method appropriate for both specialized inquiries and everyday reasoning is based on credal logic, which employs multivalent degrees of belief rather than traditional probability theory. It accounts for epistemic uncertainty as unallocated belief. It holds that, when facing real uncertainty, if a person believes a and believes b, then the person believes a and b together. This brand of multivalent logic underlies and justifies how legal decision makers and the rest of us find facts in a world infused with epistemic uncertainty. Indeed, this article closes by showing the equivalence of multivalent logic and inference to the best explanation. By demonstrating this similarity in reasoning, I aim to shore up our faith in the logic of traditional legal reasoning.

中文翻译：

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法律和生活中不确定性的逻辑

摘要

我的主要兴趣是在存在认知不确定性的情况下进行决策。一种适用于专业查询和日常推理的方法是基于credal逻辑，该逻辑采用多价信念度而不是传统的概率论。它把认知不确定性解释为未分配的信念。它认为，当面对真正的不确定性时，如果一个人相信a并相信b，那么该人就会相信a和b一起。这种多价逻辑的品牌奠定了基础，并证明了法律决策者和我们其他人如何在充满了认知不确定性的世界中发现事实。确实，本文以展示多价逻辑的等效性和对最佳解释的推论结尾。通过证明这种推理的相似性，我的目的是在传统法律推理的逻辑上树立我们的信念。