The Middle Paranapanema region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, is an area with high diversity for Biomphalaria species, with municipalities historically marked by cases of schistosomiasis transmission. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the current distribuition and predict the future distribution of habitats of Biomphalaria species at a high spatial resolution along 114 freshwater sites in the Middle Paranapanema watershed. The modelling encompassed 55 municipalities of the Middle Paranapanema region, which were analyzed through the maximum entropy algorithm. All geographic coordinates of the Biomphalaria species collected from 2015–2018 and environmental data were obtained through WorldClim, HydroSHEDS, TOPODATA and Secretaria do Meio Ambiente for the 1970–2017 period. For the 2041–2060 period we used the HadGEM2-ES climate model. Due to climate change, MaxEnt showed that there was a high probability for the maintenance of B. glabrata habitats near Ourinhos and Assis, an expansion of scattered spots, and a 50% probability that the species will spread throughout new suitable areas. The results showed that the geographical range of B. straminea will most likely expand in the future along the Middle Paranapanema hydrographic basin, especially in the municipalities near Ourinhos. For B. glabrata and B. straminea, the geographic expansion was related to the predicted increase in the annual temperature range. The habitats suitable for B. tenagophila and B. peregrina seemed to slightly expand around the west border of the Middle Paranapanema region. Biomphalaria occidentalis may have a small reduction in its distribution due to climate change. The variables that contributed the most to the future modelling for these three species were precipitation and temperature. Identifying the sites with intermediate hosts for schistosomiasis may guide public health measures to avoid or reduce future transmissions in this region.

巴西圣保罗州的巴拉那帕内玛地区中部地区是生物淋病物种高度多样性的地区，历史上市政当局以血吸虫病传播为特征。这项研究的目的是评估巴拉那帕内玛中部流域中114个淡水站点目前的分布情况，并以高空间分辨率预测Biomphalaria物种的栖息地的未来分布。该模型涵盖了巴拉那帕内中部地区的55个城市，并通过最大熵算法对其进行了分析。Biomphalaria的所有地理坐标通过WorldClim，HydroSHEDS，TOPODATA和Secretaria do Meio Ambiente收集了1970-2017年期间2015-2018年收集的物种和环境数据。在2041年至2060年期间，我们使用了HadGEM2-ES气候模型。由于气候变化，MaxEnt表明，在Ourinhos和Assis附近有很大的可能性维护B. glabrata生境，散布点的扩展，并且该物种有50％的可能性会在新的合适区域传播。结果表明，未来B. straminea的地理范围最有可能沿巴拉那巴内玛中部水文盆地扩展，特别是在Ourinhos附近的城市。对于glabrata和B. straminea，地理扩展与预计的年温度范围增加有关。适用于tenagophila和B. peregrina的生境似乎在巴拉那帕内玛中部地区的西边界附近略有扩展。由于气候变化，西方球孢菌的分布可能会有所减少。对这三个物种的未来建模影响最大的变量是降水和温度。鉴定带有血吸虫病中间宿主的场所可指导公共卫生措施，以避免或减少该地区今后的传播。