There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons from three decades of scholarship on abrupt and surprising change in systems of humans and nature Over time, many social-ecological systems exhibit cycles of change consisting of sequential patterns of growth, development, crisis, and reorganization A critical phase in the cycle is the brief period after crisis when novelty and innovation can change the future trajectory Without being prepared for this window of opportunity, deep, systemic change may be unachievable We propose a three-step process to identify the major drivers of the global system that need to be changed: (1) identifying what society values;(2) identifying the determinants of these valued variables;and (3) identifying the underlying drivers of the determinants and how they need to be changed A tentative list of five such drivers are identified and discussed: (i) the economic system, (ii) homogenization, (iii) human population growth, size, and densities, (iv) consumption patterns, human ethics, and behavior, and (v) governance They are linked to seven questions relating to how we might proceed in addressing the drivers If response to the crisis merely reinforces the existing system, its incompatibility with the natural world and its propensity to increase inequity and conflict will likely increase fragility and lead to another version of the present calamity If it is a deliberately transformed system that emerges its future will depend on the reorganization process, and the way the system is guided into the future What is needed is a deliberate, fundamental cultivation of emergence to enable transformation toward better futures in order to avoid an inevitable deepening of a system that ultimately is worse for all © 2020 by the author(s)

中文翻译：

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驾驭正在展开的全球周期的混乱

有许多呼吁将 COVID 19 危机作为转型到更加公平和环境可持续的未来轨迹的机会 缺乏的是将这些呼吁结合在一起的有凝聚力的框架 我们建议此类转型可以借鉴三个方面的经验教训数十年关于人类和自然系统突然和惊人变化的研究 随着时间的推移，许多社会生态系统表现出由增长、发展、危机和重组的连续模式组成的变化周期。新奇和创新可以改变未来轨迹的危机 如果没有为这个机会之窗做好准备，深入，系统性变革可能无法实现 我们提出了一个三步流程来确定需要改变的全球系统的主要驱动因素：(1) 确定社会价值观；(2) 确定这些有价值变量的决定因素；以及 (3)确定决定因素的潜在驱动因素以及如何改变它们 确定并讨论了五个此类驱动因素的暂定清单：(i) 经济体系，(ii) 同质化，(iii) 人口增长、规模和密度， (iv) 消费模式、人类伦理和行为，以及 (v) 治理 它们与有关我们如何着手解决驱动因素的七个问题有关 如果对危机的反应只是加强现有系统，它与自然世界的不兼容及其增加不公平和冲突的倾向可能会增加脆弱性并导致当前灾难的另一个版本如果它是一个故意改造的系统，它的未来将取决于重组过程，以及系统的方式被引导到未来 需要的是对涌现的深思熟虑、根本性的培养，以实现向更美好未来的转变，以避免最终对所有人都变得更糟的系统不可避免地深化 © 2020 作者（s）对涌现的基本培养，以实现向更美好未来的转变，以避免不可避免地深化最终对所有人都变得更糟的系统 © 2020 作者（s）对涌现的基本培养，以实现向更美好未来的转变，以避免不可避免地深化最终对所有人都变得更糟的系统 © 2020 作者（s）