This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter‐model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO‐CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.

中文翻译：

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大型EURO-CORDEX区域和全球气候模式合奏模拟的欧洲气候预测评估

本文分析了在EURO‐CORDEX项目中完成的欧洲区域气候模式（RCM）预测的整体。由八个全球气候模型（GCM）驱动的11个RCM，可以以0.11°的分辨率为两个RCP2.6（22个成员）和RCP8.5（55个成员）温室气体浓度情景提供预测。将RCM集成结果与驱动的CMIP5全局模型进行了比较，还与可用的上一代CMIP6预测的子集进行了比较。北欧所有乐团预计冬季将出现最大的变暖，而那里的最大降水量将增加。在夏季，最大的变暖发生在地中海和南欧地区，这与最大的降水减少有关。CMIP6集合显示了最大的温度和降水信号，以及最大的跨模型传播。在整个地中海地区，关于极端降水和干旱频率的增加，在整个集体中有很高的模型共识。极端温度指数显示出极端温度升高而极端寒冷的情况减少，其中CMIP6显示最高值，而EURO-CORDEX显示出最佳空间细节。这一前所未有的规模和质量的数据集将为欧洲地区的影响评估和气候服务活动提供基础。