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New uncertainty modelling for cargo stowage plans of general cargo ships
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review ( IF 10.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2020.102151
Daihui Zhang , Zhuohau Qu , Wenxin Wang , Jiagen Yu , Zaili Yang

The current approach to the cargo stowage plans (CSP) of general cargo ships (GCS) is safety-driven, which means that any CSP satisfying minimum safety requirements can be used in practice. Such an approach taking into account no economic and environmental concerns cannot help sustain GCS growth in today’s competitive freight transportation market. This paper introduces a revised evidential reasoning (ER) approach to cope with the complex decision-making problem associated with the CSP of GCS. The complexity mainly results from the dynamic interdependency between the decision criteria and alternatives. The revised ER can determine the functions of the safety-related criteria in the decision making process by considering the extent to which each decision alternative meets the minimum safety requirements. The model is tested in multiple forms by an empirical study using a national GSC loading laboratory, and a real-life application by a shipping company in practice. The results reveals that the new model can aid general ship owners to make sustainable CSPs from a multiple-dimensional perspective and select an optimal CSP based on specific voyage scenarios.



中文翻译:

杂货船载货计划的新不确定性建模

通用货船(GCS)的当前货物装载计划(CSP)的当前方法是安全驱动的,这意味着可以在实践中使用满足最低安全要求的任何CSP。这种不考虑经济和环境问题的方法无法在当今竞争激烈的货运市场中帮助维持GCS的增长。本文介绍了一种经过修订的证据推理(ER)方法,以解决与GCS的CSP相关的复杂决策问题。复杂性主要是由决策标准和备选方案之间的动态相互依赖性导致的。经修订的ER可以通过考虑每个决策备选方案满足最低安全要求的程度来确定决策过程中安全相关标准的功能。该模型通过使用国家GSC装货实验室的实证研究以多种形式进行测试,并在实践中由货运公司进行了实际应用。结果表明,新模型可以帮助通用船东从多维角度制定可持续的CSP,并根据特定的航行场景选择最佳的CSP。

更新日期:2020-11-21
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