当前位置: X-MOL 学术Alex. Eng. J. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
An SIER model to estimate optimal transmission rate and initial parameters of COVD-19 dynamic in Sri Lanka
Alexandria Engineering Journal ( IF 6.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.11.010
W.P.T.M. Wickramaarachchi , S.S.N. Perera

COVID-19 global outbreak has been significantly damaging the human well-being, life style of people and the global economy. It is clear that the entire world is moving into a dangerous phase of this epidemic at the moment. With absence of a preventive vaccine, the governments across world implement, monitor and manage various public health and social distancing measures to control the spread of this extremely contagious disease and it is found that most of these responses have been critical results of numerous mathematical and decision support models. In this study, SEIR compartment structure is used to model the COVID-19 transmission in Sri Lanka. Reported cases data during the first 80 days of the outbreak is used to model the time dependent transmission rate of the disease. Optimal transmission rates and initial size of the exposed and infected sizes of the populations are then estimated matching between clinically identified cases to model based simulated outcomes.



中文翻译:

估算斯里兰卡最优COVD-19动态传输速率和初始参数的SIER模型

COVID-19全球疫情已严重损害人类福祉,人们的生活方式和全球经济。显然,目前全世界正处于这一流行病的危险阶段。在没有预防性疫苗的情况下,世界各国政府实施,监视和管理各种公共卫生和社会疏远措施,以控制这种极具传染性的疾病的传播,并且发现,大多数对策是许多数学和决策的重要结果。支持模型。在这项研究中,使用SEIR隔室结构来模拟斯里兰卡的COVID-19传播。疫情爆发前80天的报告病例数据用于对疾病随时间的传播速率进行建模。

更新日期:2020-11-21
down
wechat
bug