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Determination of the most important meteorological parameters affecting the yield and biomass of barley and winter wheat using the random forest algorithm
Paddy and Water Environment ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s10333-020-00832-5
Abdol Rassoul Zarei , Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi , Ali Shabani , Mohammed Achite

Considering the very important role of climatic parameters on the yield and biomass of plants (especially in rain-fed agriculture), in this research, using data series of 9 stations during 1968–2017 the influence of 6 climatic parameters including the average of annual maximum and minimum temperature (Max-T and Min-T), the average of annual sunshine (Su-Sh), the average of annual relative humidity (H), the average of annual wind speed (Wi) and the average annual precipitation (P) on the yield and biomass of winter wheat (YWW and BWW) and barley (YB and BB) as two important and strategic species to provide the human food and the livestock feed in Iran, was investigated and prioritized. To assess the effectiveness rate of the climatic parameters on the response variables (YWW, BWW, YB and BB), the random forest algorithm (RF) was used. The results indicated that the RF algorithm had a good ability to predict the response variables because (1) the linear regression between simulated and predicted YWW, BWW, YB and BB using the AquaCrop model and the RF algorithm (respectively) had no difference with perfect reliable line (Y = X) in 0.05 or 0.01 significant levels and (2) R2 between simulated and predicted YWW, BWW, YB and BB was significant at 0.01 levels. According to the results, the P, Wi and Min-T parameters were the most influential climatic parameters on the YWW (respectively), the Min-T, Wi and P parameters were the most influential parameters on the YB and the Wi and Min-T parameters were the most influential parameters on the BWW and BB. On the other hand, in all stations, the Su-Sh and Hu were the least influential parameters on the YWW, BWW, YB and BB.



中文翻译:

利用随机森林算法确定影响大麦和冬小麦产量和生物量的最重要气象参数

考虑到气候参数对植物的产量和生物量(尤其是雨养农业)的非常重要的作用,在这项研究中,使用1968-2017年间9个站的数据系列,对6个气候参数的影响(包括年平均值的平均值)最低温度(Max-T和Min-T),年平均日照(Su-Sh),年平均相对湿度(H),年平均风速(Wi)和年平均降水量(P),对作为伊朗提供人类食品和牲畜饲料的两个重要战略物种冬小麦(YWW和BWW)和大麦(YB和BB)的产量和生物量进行了调查并确定了优先顺序。为了评估气候参数对响应变量(YWW,BWW,YB和BB)的有效率,使用了随机森林算法(RF)。结果表明,RF算法具有很好的预测响应变量的能力,因为(1)使用AquaCrop模型在模拟和预测的YWW,BWW,YB和BB之间进行线性回归,并且RF算法(分别)与理想变量没有区别。可靠线(Y  =  X)处于0.05或0.01的显着水平和(2)R 2模拟和预测的YWW,BWW,YB和BB之间的显着性水平为0.01。根据结果​​,P,Wi和Min-T参数分别是YWW上影响最大的气候参数,Min-T,Wi和P参数分别是YB和Wi和Min-T上影响最大的参数。 T参数是BWW和BB上影响最大的参数。另一方面,在所有台站中,Su-Sh和Hu是YWW,BWW,YB和BB上影响最小的参数。

更新日期:2020-11-21
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