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The Spread of Rabies Among Dogs in Pranburi District, Thailand: A Metapopulation Modeling Approach
Frontiers in Veterinary Science ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-14 , DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.570504
Panchiwa Komol , Sawitri Sommanosak , Parima Jaroensrisuwat , Anuwat Wiratsudakul , Kansuda Leelahapongsathon

Rabies, a deadly zoonotic disease, is causing serious public health problems worldwide. Dogs are considered the main reservoir for rabies infection in humans. A better understanding of the dissemination of rabies in the dog population is crucial. The present study, therefore, aimed to explore the subpopulation of dogs roaming around rabies-outbreak areas and the model of its possible spread. We used a Cross-K function to investigate the spatial clustering between the locations of dog rabies cases and the feeding points of a stray dog feeder. We then observed the social interaction of dogs in a community using a metapopulation analysis and further simulated the possible spread of rabies within this population. We found that the reported rabies cases were spatially clustered with the routes of the dog feeder. Therefore, more sustainable stray dog management is required. Based on our community dog observations, we found 20 groups comprising 222 dogs with an average of 11 dogs per group. In our infectious model, we suggested that 47.7% of dogs are likely to be infected in a year if no interventions are implemented. Therefore, the veterinary authorities should rigorously strengthen their rabies prevention and control strategies to protect both animal and human health.



中文翻译:

泰国攀武里区狂犬病在狗中的传播:种群建模方法

狂犬病是一种致命的人畜共患病,正在全球范围内引起严重的公共卫生问题。狗被认为是人类狂犬病感染的主要宿主。更好地了解狂犬病在狗群中的传播至关重要。因此,本研究旨在探讨在狂犬病暴发地区漫游的狗的亚群及其可能传播的模型。我们使用了Cross-K函数来研究狂犬病病例的位置与流浪狗喂食器的喂食点之间的空间聚类。然后,我们使用荟萃分析观察了社区中狗的社交互动,并进一步模拟了狂犬病在该人群中的传播。我们发现报告的狂犬病病例在空间上与狗的喂食路线成簇。因此,需要更可持续的流浪狗管理。根据我们对社区狗的观察,我们发现了20组,包括222条狗,每组平均11条狗。在我们的传染模型中,我们建议如果不采取任何干预措施,则一年中有47.7%的狗可能会被感染。因此,兽医部门应严格加强狂犬病的预防和控制策略,以保护动物和人类的健康。

更新日期:2020-11-19
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