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High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing: lessons from the large marsh grasshopper
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355
Johannes A. Leins , Thomas Banitz , Volker Grimm , Martin Drechsler

Abstract Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stage- and cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.

中文翻译:

沿大环境梯度的高分辨率 PVA 模拟气候变化和土地利用时间的综合影响:来自大型沼泽蚱蜢的经验教训

摘要 气候变化和土地利用制度都会影响种群的生存能力,但它们经常被分开研究。此外,人口生存能力分析 (PVA) 通常忽略大环境梯度的影响,并使用过于粗糙的时间分辨率,无法考虑到气候变化可能对人口生命周期的不同阶段产生不同的影响。在这里,我们展示了高分辨率大环境梯度 (HiLEG) 模型,并将其应用于具有基于德国西北部每日气候预测的每日分辨率的 PVA。我们使用大型沼泽蚱蜢 (LMG) 作为目标物种并调查了 (1) 气候变化对物种生存能力和空间分布的影响,(2) 草地割草时间对物种的影响; (3) 气候变化与草地割草的影响之间的相互作用。基于阶段和队列的模型针对整个研究区域的空间差异化环境条件温度和土壤湿度运行。我们实施了三种气候变化情景,并分析了连续四个 20 年期间的人口动态。气候变化本身就会导致适合 LMG 的地区扩大,因为变暖加速了发展,并且由于干旱压力减少。然而,结合土地利用,割草的时机至关重要,因为这种干扰会导致地上生命阶段的高死亡率。假设整个地区的割草日期相同,由于气候条件不同,各区域对生存能力的影响差异很大。割日对区域的负面影响可分为五个阶段:(1)早春,各地区种群基本不受影响;(2)春末夏初,仅在温暖地区受灾严重;(3)夏季,所有种群都受到严重影响,几乎无法生存;(4)夏末秋初,寒冷地区受灾严重;(5) 秋季,各地区的种群受到的影响相同。每个阶段的持续时间和开始时间因气候变化情景和模拟时期的不同而略有不同,但总体而言,它们显示出相同的模式。我们的模型可用于识别关注区域并制定管理建议。该模型可以适应不同目标物种的生命周期、气候预测和干扰状况。我们展示了我们对 HiLEG 模型的适应,高分辨率 PVA 和在大环境梯度上的应用可以协调,以开发能够处理多种压力源的保护策略。
更新日期:2021-01-01
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