Tuta absoluta is a devastating invasive pest worldwide, causing severe damage to the global tomato industry. It has been recorded recently in the northwestern border areas of China, posing a significant threat to tomato production. It was presumed that the region's winter-related low temperatures would avert the alien species from successfully overwintering. In this study, the supercooling capacity and low-temperature tolerance of this pest were examined under laboratory conditions and its overwintering potential in Xinjiang was estimated. The results showed that the lowest supercooling point was recorded in the adult stage (− 19.47 °C), while the highest (− 18.11 °C) was recorded in the pupal stage. The supercooling points of pupae and adults were not influenced by gender. The Ltemp₅₀ and Ltemp₉₀ of female and male adults were the lowest when exposed to cold for 2 h. However, when the duration of exposure extended from 4 to 10 h, the Ltemp₅₀ and Ltemp₉₀ of female and male pupae were the lowest. Comparison of the lowest Ltemp₅₀ and Ltemp₉₀ with temperatures in January indicated that T. absoluta might not be able to overwinter in most of the northern and central regions of Xinjiang. However, in the southern regions, the extremely low temperature was higher than the Ltemp₉₀, suggesting that T. absoluta has a higher overwintering potential in these regions. These results form a basis for predicting the dispersal potential and possible geographic range of this pest in Xinjiang. In addition, our findings provide guidance for the control of this pest by reducing overwintering shelters.