The overall reliability or evidentiary value of any body of literature is established in part by ruling out publication bias for any observed effects. Questionable research practices have potentially undermined the evidentiary value of commonly used research paradigms in psychological science. Subsequently, the evidentiary value of these common methodologies remains uncertain. To quantify the severity of these issues in the literature, we selected the Taylor Aggression Paradigm (TAP) as a case study and submitted 170 hypothesis tests spanning over 50 years of research to a preregistered p-curve analysis. The TAP literature (N = 24,685) demonstrated significant evidentiary value but yielded a small average effect size (d = 0.29) and inadequate power (38%). The main effects demonstrated greater evidentiary value, power, and effect sizes than interactions. Studies that tested the effects of measured traits did not differ in evidentiary value or power to those that tested the effects of experimentally manipulated states. Exploratory analyses revealed that evidentiary value, statistical power, and effect sizes have improved over time. We provide recommendations for researchers who seek to maximize the evidentiary value of their psychological measures.

中文翻译：

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泰勒侵略范式的 p 曲线分析：估计 50 年研究的证据价值和统计能力

任何文献的整体可靠性或证据价值部分是通过排除任何观察到的影响的发表偏倚来确定的。有问题的研究实践可能会破坏心理科学中常用研究范式的证据价值。随后，这些通用方法的证据价值仍然不确定。为了量化文献中这些问题的严重程度，我们选择了泰勒侵略范式 (TAP) 作为案例研究，并提交了 170 项跨越 50 多年研究的假设检验，以进行预先注册的 p 曲线分析。TAP 文献 (N = 24,685) 显示出显着的证据价值，但产生的平均效应量较小 (d = 0.29) 且效力不足 (38%)。主效应显示出更大的证据价值、效力、和影响大小而不是交互作用。测试测量性状影响的研究与测试实验操纵状态影响的研究在证据价值或力量上没有差异。探索性分析表明，证据价值、统计效力和效应大小随着时间的推移而有所改善。我们为寻求最大化心理测量证据价值的研究人员提供建议。