Abstract Wind turbine blade erosion has risen to the attention of researchers and industry lately in an effort to keep ageing wind farms productive. Although not new, erosion-related blade damage seems to be more severe in recent, particularly off-shore, installations. With the high blade-tip speeds of modern wind turbines, installation in rainy locations can cause significant damage. While all the players in the industry agree that a reduction on Annual Energy Production (AEP) has to be expected, its magnitude remains uncertain, with wide range of variability forecasted in published research. This work proposes a probabilistic framework to assess AEP reductions, allowing for a better understanding of the key mechanism that cause turbine power loss and for a better quantification of AEP losses. The method is tested on the DTU10MW reference case. Erosion-related uncertainties are estimated based on available literature data. Lift and drag coefficients of the airfoils are derived using CFD, and the entire wind turbine is simulated aero-servo-elastically using a Blade Element Momentum code. An arbitrary Polynomial Chaos method is used to estimate the uncertainties associated to key turbine figures due to the erosion inputs. Results show how AEP reductions, while still significant, are lower than most published literature indicates.

中文翻译：

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降雨侵蚀对多兆瓦风力涡轮机年发电量和性能影响的不确定性量化

摘要 风力涡轮机叶片腐蚀最近引起了研究人员和工业界的关注，以努力保持老化的风电场的生产力。尽管不是新的，但与侵蚀相关的叶片损坏在最近的安装中似乎更为严重，尤其是近海安装。由于现代风力涡轮机的叶尖速度很高，安装在多雨的地方会造成严重的损坏。虽然该行业的所有参与者都同意必须预期年能源生产 (AEP) 的减少，但其幅度仍不确定，已发表的研究预测了广泛的可变性。这项工作提出了一个概率框架来评估 AEP 降低，从而更好地了解导致涡轮机功率损失的关键机制，并更好地量化 AEP 损失。该方法在 DTU10MW 参考案例上进行了测试。侵蚀相关的不确定性是根据可用的文献数据估算的。翼型的升力和阻力系数是使用 CFD 推导出来的，整个风力涡轮机使用叶片元素动量代码进行气动伺服弹性模拟。由于侵蚀输入，任意多项式混沌方法用于估计与关键涡轮机数字相关的不确定性。结果表明 AEP 降低虽然仍然显着，但低于大多数已发表的文献所表明的。由于侵蚀输入，使用任意多项式混沌方法来估计与关键涡轮机数字相关的不确定性。结果表明 AEP 降低虽然仍然显着，但低于大多数已发表的文献所表明的。由于侵蚀输入，使用任意多项式混沌方法来估计与关键涡轮机数字相关的不确定性。结果表明 AEP 降低虽然仍然显着，但低于大多数已发表的文献所表明的。