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Bayesian optimization of typhoon full-track simulation on the Northwestern Pacific segmented by QuadTree decomposition
Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104428 Wei Cui , Lin Zhao , Shuyang Cao , Yaojun Ge
Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104428 Wei Cui , Lin Zhao , Shuyang Cao , Yaojun Ge
Abstract The tropical cyclone is one of the most destructive weather phenomena for several coastal countries, including China, the United States of America, India, Japan, and Australia. Accurate modeling of their trajectories is essential for public safety. Current research has provided several principle methods for simulating typhoon tracks and intensity development from genesis to landing and decaying. However, simulation performance still needs to be improved. This paper first presents a new ocean segmentation algorithm based on QuadTree to divide the analysis region in the Northwestern Pacific adaptively according to data sample density. The regression analysis area can be automatically adjusted to produce a significant enough data sample for fine-grained modeling. Second, it proposes a Bayesian optimization for parameter tuning. Because Month Carlo typhoon simulation results unavoidably incorporate uncertainties and need long computing time, Bayesian optimization is suitable for typhoon simulation parameter adjustments. With optimized parameters, the simulated typhoon activities demonstrate better agreement with historical records.
更新日期：2021-01-01
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